One crypto wallet is currently engaged in trading amounts totaling tens of millions of dollars on Polymarket, a prediction market that supports cryptocurrency. The user, who goes by the handle Fredi9999, has made transactions exceeding $73 million, primarily placing bets that favor Donald Trump. This wallet now has $12 million staked on Trump to win the election scheduled for November 5.
While other high-frequency traders may have executed larger volumes in total, Fredi9999 is recognized as the most profitable wallet on the site for this month and the second most profitable trader in its history.
As this trader rose up the Polymarket leaderboard, it drew attention from the media due to its political aims. Specifically, there are concerns that this trader’s significant capital may be creating a 5-8% ‘Fredi premium’ within Polymarket’s 2024 US presidential election market, with some estimating effects as high as 13%.
Because fluctuating prices in liquid markets evoke various emotional and immeasurable responses from traders, it remains impossible to define the precise influence of Fredi9999 on Polymarket’s odds.
Nonetheless, a professor from American University shared with Newsweek, “If Fredi9999 has business interests that could suffer from a Trump victory, they might be betting in a way to offset those possible future losses.”
Read more: Prediction markets like Polymarket see significant growth despite US ‘ban’
Others question whether traders like Fredi9999 are fully risking everything on Trump. There’s theory suggesting that Fredi9999 may not be acting alone but could instead be part of an advanced group that strategically hedges its bets or teams up to acquire airdrops via market-neutral strategies.
Cashing in on Donald Trump’s presidential campaign
If rumors hold weight, it wouldn’t mark the first instance of wealthy traders profiting from Trump’s election prospects. Speculative proxies for Trump have surged to perplexing valuations. The leading TRUMP meme coin, which offers no rights to its holders, boasts a valuation of $234 million. Another token, MAGA Hat, is valued at $73 million, while Super Trump stands at $20 million.
In regulated capital markets, the phenomena extend from millions to billions. Take Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest mortgage firms globally, whose profits are consistently directed to the US Treasury under a government conservatorship that Trump seeks to end.
Numerous classes of common and preferred shares in these companies, which plummeted to a decade-low after Trump’s 2020 election loss, have accumulated billions in market capitalization as his odds for winning the election rise.
Another illustration involves Trump Media, which is the publicly traded entity behind Trump’s Truth Social platform. Despite Trump Media earning only $4.1 million in revenue over the past year, investors have inflated its market cap to an astonishing $5.8 billion, resulting in an extraordinary 3,589 times its sales.
Ultimately, it remains unclear if Fredi9999 represents one crypto wallet controlled by an individual trader or is in collaboration with numerous other traders. Although the Polymarket leaderboard cites $12 million in stakes for Trump’s potential presidency, the individual(s) behind the wallet may be motivated by entirely different interests.
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