- BTC’s momentum has now shifted to a bullish trend for the first time in the second half of 2024.
- Will this upward trend persist and mirror historical US pre-election patterns?
Last week marked a significant bullish phase for Bitcoin [BTC], which surged nearly 10%, climbing from $62.5K to $69.4K, driven by robust spot market demand.
This latest rally brought BTC to just 7% shy of its all-time high (ATH) of $73.7K reached in March.
Analyst Stockmoney Lizards reported that the recent uptick has transitioned BTC’s momentum to bullish, potentially spurred by historic uptrends tied to US elections.
He mentioned that BTC’s momentum has turned bullish for the first time in the latter half of 2024.
“Momentum is turning bullish”
Source: X
To provide context, the SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index) serves as a momentum indicator that evaluates BTC’s price relative to recent averages, revealing overbought or oversold conditions.
The latest data from the 2-week chart reveals a resurgence above the neutral 50-level, suggesting an ongoing bullish reversal.
This mirrors the trend witnessed in 2020, shortly before BTC broke through its re-accumulation range, and could indicate an impending bullish breakout.
BTC: US Pre-Elections Trend
Source: X
The analyst added that the explosive BTC gains linked to the US pre-elections may repeat.
In 2016 and 2020, BTC surged 10% and 18% respectively, just two weeks prior to the US elections.
Should this trend repeat in 2024, Stockmoney Lizards anticipates a new ATH could be on the horizon before the US elections.
“For 2024, this could indicate that we’re likely to see a new ATH before the elections (+10% = $74,000) with significant gains in November and December.”
But do on-chain metrics also support this bullish scenario?
Source: Glassnode
Since July, overall interest and the growth of the BTC network have remained stagnant, as indicated by daily active addresses.
While this stagnation could hinder a major BTC breakout, whale investors have significantly increased their positions.
Since last week, whales have outpaced retail investors in BTC holdings, according to the Whale vs. Retail Delta metric. This indicates strong accumulation by whales who are confident in a price increase.
Source: Hyblock
Nevertheless, any decline in this metric could indicate a possible retracement for BTC, with $66K being a critical level of interest in the event of a short-term pullback.
