Experienced trader Peter Brandt asserts that Bitcoin’s recent upswing is not sufficient to change the prevailing long-term bearish trend. Although BTC experienced a temporary spike, he contends it hasn’t met the necessary thresholds to indicate a bullish reversal.
Bitcoin must first surpass $71,000 and then solidify that breakthrough, according to Brandt. While he emphasizes this point, other market experts like Jesse Colombo and Roman caution that geopolitical tensions and market dynamics could drive BTC even lower.
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QCP Capital expresses cautious optimism, observing that the recent sell-off seems superficial, indicating a possible recovery. As major traders take a moment to reassess, Michal van de Poppe believes this pullback is temporary and anticipates a test of the $60,000 support level before Bitcoin stages a solid rebound.
For over seven months, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend characterized by consecutive lower highs and lows, reinforcing bearish sentiment. Despite fleeting moments of optimism, Brandt’s analysis suggests that the overarching pattern remains unchanged. BTC needs to break past current higher resistance levels to spark a bullish trend.
Resistance Levels Holding Bitcoin Back
Brandt indicates that Bitcoin is trapped between two critical resistance levels. The first is at $70,600, while the second, marking Bitcoin’s all-time high, sits at $73,800. Both of these points have consistently capped upward movements, making them essential for Bitcoin’s next significant advancement. Brandt believes Bitcoin is unlikely to convincingly break above $71,000, suggesting it will likely remain in its current consolidation phase.
The recent rally in Bitcoin did NOT disrupt the 7-month trend of lower highs and lower lows. $BTC
Only a close above $71,000 confirmed by a new ATH will indicate that the trend from the Nov 2022 low remains intact pic.twitter.com/lFO9A20VPD— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 2, 2024
Roman, another well-known crypto trader, shares a similar viewpoint. He noted that increases in volume accompanying price declines tend to affirm a strong downtrend. Roman believes Bitcoin is likely to test the $55,000-$57,000 range before any potential reversal, once again highlighting the difficulty in breaking through those resistance levels.
Moving Averages And Market Uncertainty
Currently, Bitcoin’s 8-week simple moving average (SMA) is hovering around $60,526 and has recently acted as resistance on the price charts. The price of BTC has remained near this line for a while, indicating uncertainty among market participants regarding buying or selling. It hasn’t dipped significantly below this point to indicate strength for an upward move either.
In terms of volatility, the Average True Range for Bitcoin is at 5,756. This reflects a relatively low level of volatility in the market. It signifies that while the market can produce significant price variations, it hasn’t yet reached an extreme volatility phase. Traders are closely monitoring these signals, which could indicate Bitcoin’s next breakout direction.
Geopolitical Tensions And Market Sentiment
Geopolitical issues in the Middle East add another layer of strain to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has seen increased volatility amid rising global instability fears. Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price has dropped by 3%, reaching $61,380, part of a broader cryptocurrency sell-off that saw market capitalization decline by 7.6% over two days.
Bitcoin and crypto always tank when there are geopolitical fears, unlike precious metals.
That confirms my long-held belief that crypto is not a safe haven.
It’s just another risk asset, similar to soaring tech stocks. $BTC $GLD pic.twitter.com/SBLgLgdpKB
— Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) October 1, 2024
Market analyst Jesse Colombo suggests that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies typically suffer during periods of geopolitical unrest. As he explains: “Bitcoin and crypto always tank when there are geopolitical fears, unlike precious metals.” This trend echoed past instances when global tensions spiked. The current market appears to mirror this historical context.
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Even in light of bearish sentiment emerging from certain sectors, QCP Capital maintains a positive outlook. Their assessment indicates that the sell-offs from recent days appear shallow, which may imply continued investor interest in riskier assets like Bitcoin. In a similar vein, Michal van de Poppe anticipates a retest of the $60,000 support level, suggesting a potential market reversal if this level manages to hold.
Featured image from Finshots, chart from TradingView
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