US Election Buzz Fuels Polymarket Trading to $533M in September

Polymarket, the blockchain prediction platform, achieved a trading volume of $533.51 million in September, significantly fueled by the heightened interest surrounding the 2024 U.S. presidential election and geopolitical events in the Middle East.

As reported by Dune Analytics, this is an increase of $61.51 million from August’s trading volume of $472 million. Additionally, the platform experienced a 41% uptick in active users, rising from 63,616 in August to 90,037 in September.

Polymarket’s Expansion

With the U.S. elections looming just over a month away, there has been a notable surge in demand for Polymarket. Data from Dune Analytics highlights that the platform’s leading market, “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” has amassed $89.07 million in trading volume over the past month. As of October 4, the odds showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in a statistical tie, each candidate having a 50% probability of winning.

September 30 was its most active day, with 16,702 participants making trades, leading to a remarkable total of 89,958 new account registrations for the month. Although the highest daily volume was first tallied on September 11, new daily trading records were established on October 2 and 3, demonstrating ongoing momentum as election day nears.

Despite a slight decrease in open interest at the beginning of September, it rebounded, reaching a peak of $136 million, driven by speculation surrounding a potential token launch. A report from The Information indicated that the blockchain prediction service is in discussions to secure $50 million in funding.

The company is also exploring the possibility of launching its own token, which could allow users to authenticate the results of real-world events.

Election Betting Takes the Lead

By the end of September, predictions related to elections constituted 84% of overall market activity, with 64% of users participating in election-related betting. Other markets of high interest included forecasts on geopolitical events, such as “Israeli Forces Enter Lebanon in September?” as well as financial predictions like “Fed Interest Rates: November 2024.”

The recent uptick in activity on Polymarket is attributed to the growing fascination with decentralized prediction markets, spurred by significant global events such as elections, economic policy shifts, and escalating geopolitical tensions that have captivated public interest.