Trump’s Lead Over Harris Grows: Is Polymarket Reliable?

While Harris has been largely mute about cryptocurrencies, her recent remarks about promoting technologies like AI and digital assets have piqued the interest of crypto enthusiasts.

This election cycle has seen Polymarket gain notable traction as bettors have placed sizable bets on ongoing events. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market enabling users to wager on the outcomes of real-world occurrences using cryptocurrency.

Nevertheless, the data from Polymarket does not necessarily match public polling, where Harris has been depicted as either leading or remaining competitive in certain national surveys, as reported by The Hill.

Is Polymarket reliable?

Jacob King, an analyst at WhaleWire, expressed skepticism regarding the accuracy of Polymarket’s predictions.

In a post on X, King contended that the data from Polymarket might not reflect the actual U.S. electorate, as many cryptocurrency bettors tend to have right-leaning political ideologies, skewing the odds in Trump’s favor.

King also mentioned that Polymarket is “restricted” to U.S. citizens, limiting the platform’s capacity to accurately assess genuine American voter sentiment.

Polymarket is prohibited in the U.S. owing to regulatory restrictions. It functions as a prediction market that is considered unregistered binary options trading, which contravenes U.S. securities regulations.

Recently, a U.S. District Court ruled in favor of the Kalshi prediction market, lifting a CFTC prohibition on political event betting in the U.S. However, the CFTC has filed an emergency motion to postpone the ruling, which may threaten Kalshi’s future.

Despite the legal triumph and a potential shift toward allowing platforms like Polymarket in the U.S., concerns about how these markets might influence public trust in elections remain.