Tron Price Forecast: Is TRX Heading Towards $0.137?

• TRX has been in a consolidation phase following the exhaustion of the rally initiated by the SunPump excitement.
• The converging Bollinger bands indicate low volatility, hindering major price movements.

Tron [TRX] has lagged behind most altcoins this week and recently relinquished its position among the top ten largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, as it was overtaken by Cardano [ADA]. 

Last month, TRX was one of the leading gainers in the crypto space, riding the wave of a memecoin frenzy on the blockchain. However, as the excitement surrounding Tron meme coins has diminished, TRX is now experiencing low volatility.

Tron price analysis 

As of now, TRX is trading at $0.154 after a 1.57% increase in the last 24 hours. According to CoinMarketCap, trading volumes rose by 32%. Over this period, the price fluctuated between $0.151 and $0.155.

TRX’s Bollinger bands have tightened, indicating diminished volatility, suggesting that the price is consolidating.  

However, this indicator also shows a bullish sentiment as TRX price has moved above the middle band and is testing a breakout above the upper band.

Source: TradingView

If a breakout occurs above the upper band, it could lead to an upswing towards the next target at $0.17.

Nevertheless, the narrowing bands also indicate that the TRX rally has reached its limits, and heightened buying activity is essential for further gains.

The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 77. While this indicates an overbought condition, it has not reached extreme levels, making an immediate reversal unlikely.

Additionally, the Stoch RSI has signaled a buy after crossing above the signal line, indicating that momentum is leaning towards buyers.

If the RSI continues to rise and exceeds 80, indicating TRX is overbought, it could signal a bearish reversal, similar to the drop seen in late August to the 0.382 Fibonacci level ($0.137).

Tron transaction activity declines 

Data sourced from IntoTheBlock reveals a significant drop in transaction activity on the Tron blockchain. Following a spike in mid-August, transaction volumes have sharply decreased, now sitting at three-month lows.

Source: IntoTheBlock

This decline may explain the minimal gains made by TRX this month. Large transactions generally correlate with elevated trading volumes that can induce volatility, leading to price breakouts. 

The increase in large transactions last month likely stemmed from the SunPump launchpad. As reported by TokenTerminal, the daily active addresses on Tron are nearing all-time lows.

Source: Token Terminal

This indicates that aside from market trends, there is a lack of significant catalysts within the Tron ecosystem to promote an increase in TRX’s price.

Check out Tron’s [TRX] Price Forecast for 2024–2025

Nonetheless, a large portion of TRX holders are above the break-even price, according to IntoTheBlock. These investors may opt to hold rather than sell, anticipating future price fluctuations.

This optimistic sentiment is also visible in the long/short ratio, which has improved from 0.88 to above 1. This suggests that short traders are closing positions as long positions rise, indicating confidence in upcoming price movements.

Source: Coinglass