Highlights
- Polymarket saw a record 72.8% in election-focused users in the week following the US debate.
- Historically, Bitcoin tends to initiate an upward trend between 150-160 days after halving, typically concluding within two weeks.
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Following last night’s US presidential debate, user interaction surged in the Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket, achieving a peak of 72.8% in election-related user engagement for the week. This surpasses the former high of 70.7% recorded in the week of July 15, per a Dune Analytics dashboard by Richard Chen.
After last night’s debate, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are both currently at 49% odds on Polymarket to win the 2024 US presidential elections. Harris briefly led by 1% on September 11.
Harris gained 3% from Trump’s odds, with total bets for the Democrats’ candidate exceeding $116 million, while Trump still maintains a lead with over $133 million in bets on his victory.
Interestingly, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a decline of up to 3% during the debate, reportedly due to a lack of crypto-related discussion. It has since experienced a slight recovery, leading to a current decrease of just 0.8% over the last 24 hours—a relatively stable figure amidst current market trends.
From a Quiet September to a Thriving Q4
The trader known as Rekt Capital pointed out in a post on September 11 that Bitcoin often begins to rally between 150 and 160 days after its halving, a timeline that aligns with the next two weeks.
However, Rekt Capital also noted that September has historically delivered meager average returns for risk assets.
“Realistically, we can expect a potential breakout in October, which has been a historically strong month for Bitcoin, especially during halving years like 2024,” he added.
In addition, Rekt Capital compared the current cycle to prior halvings, showing that Bitcoin displayed consistent upward momentum throughout Q4 in the two preceding cycles. While a substantial price surge is not to be expected this September, it is likely that Bitcoin could start significant growth in the upcoming month.