Market Snapshot #258 (3rd March 2024)
Greetings and welcome to the 258th edition of my Market Snapshot.
This week’s discussion will focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Filecoin, ImmutableX, Beam, Ethereum Name Service, and Myro. I plan to provide a more extensive Outlook next week, featuring additional small-cap tokens in exciting sectors, so feel free to share any specific requests you might have.
Bitcoin:
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $62,624
Market Cap: $1.231trn
Analysis: Starting with the Monthly chart for BTC/USD, February proved to be one of the most remarkable months for Bitcoin historically, moving from the monthly open to close approximately around ~$61,200. Although this was on slightly lower volume than January, the strength of the price action is noticeable, with the pair overcoming the 78.6% Fibonacci level of the bear market at $57.6k and climbing past the $59k resistance, while marginally rejecting at the last level of resistance before all-time highs at $64,900. Current price is maintaining a sharp parabolic trend, as seen by the curve of the rally, and if this trend continues through March, we could expect a breakout through all-time highs, with $100k being a significant resistance level due to its psychological nature and its position as the 1.618 extension of the bear market. There’s ample room for upward movement based on previous cycles, and momentum indicators suggest continuation is likely.
On the weekly chart, we observe a rally from the weekly open around $52.1k, following a week of tight consolidation, pushing through $59.2k to $64.1k, and now sitting at approximately $62.6k. This ascent occurred with significant trading volume, reinforcing the trend of growth after the previous consolidation week. The weekly RSI is reaching new highs, indicating strong momentum, with only $64,900 obstructing the pathway to new highs beyond $69.2k. The parabola is evident here as well, suggesting further potential for consolidation after this expansion while still adhering to the upward trajectory. Interestingly, this pace of advancement could indicate prices nearing $100k by summer. More typically of a 4-year cycle, we may witness a break of the parabola shortly after attaining new all-time highs, which could lead to consolidation before another surging advance as the market cycle peaks. However, should we maintain this curve and continue rising into summer, we could encounter a cyclical peak within 2024. Looking ahead to next week, it’s highly probable that should ETF inflows persist, we will breach this resistance and push into all-time highs, anticipating considerable volatility due to the current leverage in the markets.
Focusing on the daily, we can observe that price has been consolidating within tightening daily ranges over the past four days after a break and close above $59.2k. Given that momentum shows no signs of fatigue across any timeframe analyzed, an upside breakout seems plausible. Nevertheless, with a substantial amount of leverage present, a scenario akin to last week — breaking local lows into support at $59.2k before sharply rebounding beyond $65k — would not be unexpected. A thrilling week lies ahead…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $3464.82 (0.05531 BTC)
Market Cap: $416.329bn
Analysis: Looking at ETH/USD on the weekly, we notice the pair has been consistently moving higher, extending the bullish trend from the past three weeks, surging from the weekly open to close at approximately $3460, slightly short of the previous support at $3580 — which has been a target for a swing position for some time. At this moment, there appears to be no evident reason to expect the rally to halt, with momentum firmly supporting bullish movements and no signs of rejection present. I have decided to exit leveraged longs, maintaining only spot ETH as we approach the upcoming week — no reason to act recklessly here, in my opinion. Should we experience rejection at $3580, I anticipate forming a higher low above $2800 and price continuing to rise toward $3950. Conversely, should we not see a rejection next week, I expect the rally to continue toward $3950 soon after, with only $4385 as a barrier before reaching fresh all-time highs. This potential upward movement toward new highs is likely contingent on BTC/USD achieving its own all-time highs and consolidating, enabling ETH/BTC to advance further.
In examining ETH/BTC, despite a successful breakout beyond long-term trendline resistance, the recent price action in BTC/USD has weighed heavily, causing the pair to fall back below the trendline, slipping beneath the 200-week moving average and returning to support at 0.0551. This territory feels quite chaotic, yet some signs of strength in both momentum and structure persist, as long as we remain above 0.051; if BTC/USD reaches a new all-time high next week and ETH/BTC avoids dropping below 0.051, that would represent a significant indicator of strength, in my opinion. A brief look at the daily chart shows that while the 360-day moving average capped the last rally, the daily structure appears solid as we draw a higher-low above the 0.0533 level. For now, until BTC breaks its all-time highs, obtaining a read on the daily timeframe proves challenging. I simply want to see the 0.051 support hold during the ATH break to confidently wager on ETH strength from that point onward.
Filecoin:
FIL/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
FIL/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $10.65 (16,871 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.505bn
Analysis: Examining FIL/USD on the weekly chart, we observe that price shifted to a bullish structure following the move from $6.74 to $8.13. It has retraced to find support above $4.63 and rallied with increasing volume to $11.25 in the past week, confirming the upward trend. Momentum remains robust, and if the pair maintains above $8.13 next week, I would anticipate the price to continue toward the next major resistance at $17. Honestly, we are only scratching the surface of what this market can achieve as it breaks through $11.25, with the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the bear market located near $57. For long-term holders from the lows, I would suggest sitting comfortably while we await, at the very least, a retest of the 200-week moving average at $26, with significant resistance over $30 before any thoughts of exiting. Moving to the daily chart, it’s apparent that the confluence of the 200-day and 360-day moving averages provided solid support, with the former crossing above the latter (a sign of an emerging bull market for altcoins). Following this, the price surged to new yearly highs, with daily structure showing a firm bullish stance. There are no indications of exhaustion, thus any pull-backs toward $8.80 should be viewed as potential buying opportunities, with invalidation positioned below $6.74.
Switching to FIL/BTC, the weekly chart reflects that the pair remains near cycle lows, having just bounced from all-time lows at 10.6k satoshis, reclaiming support at 14.2k before moving to 18.5k satoshis in the past week, which served as prior support turned resistance. Diminished volatility into this support cluster over the past few months is noteworthy, and a close above 18.5k would establish a bullish weekly structure. If that occurs, I believe we are shifting from a bear market into a bull cycle and can expect continued outperformance. In such a scenario, we may mean revert toward the 200-week moving average at 80k satoshis, just below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, in the coming months. A glance at the daily chart also illustrates that the 200-day moving average is currently acting as resistance while the 360-day moving average has been breached and now functions as support, providing valuable confirmation for this bottoming pattern. For now, not much else to report; it looks promising for sustained growth in the weeks to come.
ImmutableX:
IMX/USD
Daily:
IMX/BTC
Daily:
Price: $3.26 (5211 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.541bn
Analysis: As IMX has traded for only a short period, both pairs appear nearly identical; we will focus primarily on the dollar pair.
In analyzing IMX/USD, following the formation of a higher-low above support at $1.76, the price maintained an upward trajectory, surging past the February high of $2.61 and reaching $3.70, where it encountered resistance near the 50% Fibonacci level of the bear market and just below the 100% extension of the current uptrend. Subsequently, the price has consolidated with momentum indicators resetting, with prior resistance at $2.87 now acting as support. I expect another upward movement, aiming for a retest of significant resistance at $4.50, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the bear market, as well as the last horizontal resistance. I plan to unload half of my initial holdings of IMX near that level while retaining the remainder for a price discovery movement beyond $7 — any move past $4.50 has minimal resistance into that all-time high… it has been a fruitful journey thus far.
Beam:
BEAM/USD
Daily:
BEAM/BTC
Daily:
Price: $0.0341 (54 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.794bn
Analysis: Focusing on the Dollar pair for Beam, given its recent activity in the markets, we can observe that price broke out of the previous consolidation range, flipped the prior all-time high at $0.0275 to support, and has been gradually advancing while consolidating since, reaching a new high at $0.038 but facing significant resistance at $0.0366. Over the past month, previous resistance at $0.0307 has transformed into support, although bearish divergence has emerged. Currently, there are no clear indications that this bearish divergence will take effect, but a close below $0.0307 — turning that level into newly reclaimed resistance — would signal the anticipation of a sweep below $0.0275 before forming a new low and resuming the uptrend. Conversely, if the price pushes through $0.037 in the near future, establishing support above that all-time high and creating higher-highs on the RSI, that would negate this divergence and typically indicates strong potential for another upward leg. In that scenario, a major target would be $0.051, representing the convergence of the 200% extension of the previous consolidation and the 300% extension of the uptrend. Looking ahead, I expect even higher prices beyond $0.051, as we approach the later stages of the market cycle: I anticipate a market capitalization exceeding $10bn for Beam when everything is said and done, which means we could still see a 5-6x increase if my expectations hold true.
Ethereum Name Service:
ENS/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ENS/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $22.27 (35,471 satoshis)
Market Cap: $685.627mn
Analysis: Starting with ENS/USD, on the weekly chart, we can see that price has been in a consolidation phase for most of the year following a substantial rally that passed multiple key resistance levels. It reached $27.43 during that rally and has since been capped by $24.30 as resistance while finding support above $14.55. Recently, the price has hovered close to the range resistance, with this week witnessing a successful retest of prior resistance turned support at $18.50. Diving into the daily for additional insights, we can see that momentum has reset adequately while remaining above the 50 mark as the price structure forms higher-lows, which bodes well for bulls. We observe local trendline resistance limiting the highs, but I plan to initiate a leveraged long above $24.30, transforming that level and the trendline into support, as I foresee the beginning of the next upward leg into the $38-41 range from there. Additionally, I still hold my entire spot position from around $8.50, which I have no intention of selling soon, with the goal of aiming for the 50% Fibonacci level of the bear market around $85-90. For those on the sidelines, this upcoming break and close through resistance will be the perfect opportunity to act when it arises…
Examining ENS/BTC, we notice that the pair has retraced much of the recent rally over the last couple of months, closing below support transformed into resistance at 43,300 satoshis this week as the price retreated into support above 32k. I expect a higher-low to develop above the 30k region in March, which would enable the continuation of the bullish cycle for ENS towards 65k satoshis, approaching the October 2022 high of around 108k satoshis — the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the bear market. Beyond that, we would enter the latter stages of the market cycle, which signals an exciting phase ahead. Looking at the daily chart, we can see prices finding support above both the 200-day and 360-day moving averages, which previously served as resistance. If you haven’t purchased ENS and wish to align with the Vitalik-supported project, targeting the 30-32k satoshi range makes logical sense, especially if BTC surges past all-time highs shortly, which could provide an additional downward thrust on the ENS/BTC pair into support. As long as the 26k satoshi level remains intact, the outlook appears solid.
Myro:
MYRO/USD
Daily:
MYRO/BTC
Daily:
Price: $0.158 (255 satoshis)
Market Cap: $157.943mn
Analysis: With Myro having only traded for a limited duration, we will focus on the Dollar pair.
Observing MYRO/USD, the price consolidated after reaching an all-time high at $0.26, swiftly retreating to $0.041 as support at the beginning of February. Subsequently, it created a multi-week range capped by prior support at $0.11, forming a higher low above $0.052 in mid-February, before recently breaching that $0.11 level alongside an increase in memecoin enthusiasm. This level now serves as support, and the price is just below past resistance at $0.176. I anticipate further movement through this level leading to the previous all-time high within the next couple of weeks, advancing the price discovery and maintaining an overall uptrend. The following target beyond $0.26 would be $0.44 as the 1.618 extension of the trend, succeeded by $0.53. Little else to add for now.
And that wraps up this week’s Market Snapshot.
I hope you found this insightful, and I appreciate your support!
As always, feel free to leave comments or questions below, or reach out to me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
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