As the US presidential election approaches, excitement is palpable within the crypto community. Candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties have signaled their intent to adopt pro-crypto stances, leading to a spike in political betting in the US.
Evidence of this trend can be seen in Polymarket’s trading volumes, which shattered records by exceeding $380 million in July 2024 alone. Additionally, the number of users on the platform has surged to nearly 44,000 traders, a significant jump from about 4,000 in January.
That summer, during a rally at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Vice President Kamala Harris pledged that should she become the US president-elect, she would “focus on eliminating unnecessary bureaucracy and regulatory burdens” concerning cryptocurrencies. This promise coincided with her opponent, Donald Trump, who has been a long-time advocate for the crypto sector, causing skepticism among community members who see Harris as a continuation of the Biden administration’s regulatory approach, which is often viewed as stringent.
It was evident that digital finance would become a central issue for both candidates. As developments unfolded, anticipation built for the September 2024 debate between Trump and Harris. Before the debate was scheduled, Trump proclaimed that the United States would transform into the “crypto capital of the world” if he returned to the presidency. However, the crypto community expressed frustration over both candidates’ vague positions on digital currencies during their discussions.
This leads to the question: are Harris and Trump merely courting votes, or do they genuinely intend to integrate cryptocurrency into everyday life? The U.S. Federal Reserve survey indicates that 18 million Americans, or 7% of the adult population, owned or utilized cryptocurrency in 2023. While this number may seem insignificant relative to the overall electorate, it could be crucial considering the tight race between the candidates.
Is Harris the successor to Biden’s stringent crypto policies?
Kamala Harris has dedicated a significant portion of her professional career to law enforcement. She began as a deputy district attorney in Oakland, California, in 1990 and served as California’s attorney general until 2017. Upon her election to the US Senate in January 2017, she made history as the first female senator of color.
In early 2021, following the Biden-Harris election victory, Harris took the oath of office as Vice President of the United States.
The most significant controversy around crypto regulation arose in March 2022 when the White House issued Joe Biden’s executive order to ensure the responsible development of digital assets. While the order lacked specific regulatory direction, it emphasized concerns about consumer protection, illegal activities, global economic leadership, financial inclusion, and innovation.
What troubles the crypto community more than Harris’ initial support for Biden’s regulatory push is the possibility of her appointing Gary Gensler, the current chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, as Treasury Secretary. Once viewed as a progressive supporter of digital assets, Gensler has since emerged as a fierce critic of the crypto sector.
Gensler’s stance on cryptocurrency has evolved dramatically. In 2018, before taking the SEC role, the crypto industry regarded him as a forward-thinker researching digital assets and teaching courses on Blockchain and Money at MIT. Lawyers for Binance even claimed that Gensler had offered to consult for the exchange, facilitating a meeting with its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, in Japan.
However, after his appointment to lead the SEC under Biden in 2021, Gensler’s rhetoric shifted toward emphasizing regulation. He characterized the crypto market as a “Wild West” filled with scams.
“I believe we have a crypto market now where many tokens may be unregistered securities.”
Gensler’s most notable crypto-related action was the indictment of Sam Bankman-Fried, dubbed the “King of Crypto,” who received a 25-year prison sentence in 2022 for misappropriating billions from FTX customers. This case solidified Gensler’s transition from a crypto skeptic to an outright adversary.
In 2023, the SEC filed 13 charges against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, despite Gensler’s previous offer to advise them. That same year, the SEC initiated legal action against Coinbase, leading to the classification of tokens like Solana, Polygon, and Cardano as “unregistered securities,” resulting in substantial losses for these assets.
Overall, Gensler’s recent actions stand in stark contrast to his earlier public views. In January 2024, he cautioned potential investors that cryptocurrencies “continued to be subject to significant risk” and indicated that many crypto asset services might not comply with federal securities regulations.
This anti-crypto stance makes it difficult for Harris to fulfill her promises of simplifying cryptocurrency regulations. Adding to the skepticism is her strong support from major Democratic figures, such as the Obamas and the Clintons, who are also known for their critical views on crypto.
Barack Obama famously remained silent on encryption and digital assets during his presidency, despite presenting himself as tech-savvy, disappointing over 100,000 petitioners who expected him to champion these technologies for civil rights protection. Similarly, in 2021, Hillary Clinton remarked that cryptocurrencies could undermine entire nations and jeopardize the status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency.
Other individuals aligned with Harris share similar sentiments. Xavier Becerra, Secretary of Health and Human Services and former California attorney general, warned against digital asset scams in 2020. Jennifer Granholm, the US Secretary of Energy, an ally of Harris, initiated an investigation into the energy usage of a Texas crypto miner, which resulted in a lawsuit alleging government overreach.
With Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race, possibly influenced by pro-Democratic elites, the crypto community questions Harris’ ability to effect meaningful change in a landscape where key decision-makers remain hostile to mass adoption.
In contrast, Trump presents a more favorable outlook for the cryptocurrency sector. He first initiated his political career by expressing a desire for the presidency in the 1980s, though these remarks were regarded as publicity stunts by the media. In 1999, he shifted his voter registration from the Republican Party to the Reform Party and set up a presidential exploratory committee. He did not run in 2000, but later rejoined the Republican Party while maintaining high visibility during the 2012 election.
Trump officially announced his candidacy for the 2016 election in 2015 under the slogan “Make America Great Again.” The presidential race against Hillary Clinton was characterized by heated exchanges, scandals, and allegations.
Ultimately, on November 8, 2016, Trump surprised many by winning crucial Rust Belt states. His ability to tap into the economic fears and racial biases of certain working-class groups led to his inauguration on January 20, 2017.
Despite his history of negative statements about cryptocurrency—he tweeted in 2019 that cryptocurrencies were “highly volatile and based on thin air,” and he called Bitcoin a “scam” in a 2021 interview—his outlook shifted significantly after the SEC began enforcing rigid regulations against major cryptocurrency exchanges and the industry at large. Following this, Trump and the Republican Party criticized the Democrats’ regulatory efforts under Biden, labeling it a “war on crypto.” This offered Trump a political advantage while also influencing his personal experiences with crypto’s economic potential.
In early 2022, Trump capitalized on the crypto trend by selling his own branded non-fungible tokens, valued in millions, and began accepting crypto donations for his campaign, raising $3 million in July 2024. Simultaneously, supporters have shown their allegiance to him through the purchase of fan-created meme coins like the MAGA token (TRUMP), with one significant donation of this token valued over $4 million. These factors have led to a more favorable view of cryptocurrencies; during a speech at Bitcoin 2024, Trump acknowledged the community’s challenges and pledged to remove Gary Gensler from his position on his first day back in office, stating that if he won, “the anti-crypto crusade of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would end.”
Despite his previous criticisms, Trump has gained notable support from the crypto community and tech leaders. Endorsements have come from major industry figures, including the Winklevoss twins and Elon Musk. Additionally, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, whom Trump has nominated as his Vice President, has generated substantial interest within the crypto community.
Vance recently disclosed that he holds between $100,000 and $250,000 in Bitcoin and is well-connected with Silicon Valley billionaires, many of whom support his VP nomination. Business leaders, including Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale and Doug Leone of Sequoia Capital, have collectively raised over $8 million to support the Trump-Vance campaign, as indicated by recent Federal Election Commission filings.
Additionally, Robert Kennedy Jr., an independent candidate who recently withdrew from the race, encouraged his supporters to vote for Trump, expressing his commitment to Bitcoin at the Bitcoin 2024 conference and sharing that the majority of his wealth is in digital assets.
Trump is unwavering in his pro-crypto position. In September 2024, he announced the launch of his cryptocurrency platform, World Liberty Financial, to be managed by his sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr. This platform is expected to operate similarly to Coinbase, Gemini, and Binance, charging transaction fees for cryptocurrency trading. Future plans may also include the introduction of WLFI, the platform’s native token.
Overall, Trump is strategically leveraging these moves to galvanize the pro-crypto electorate. Analysts at Bernstein predict that if Trump secures the presidency, Bitcoin prices could soar to $90,000 by the end of 2024, contrasting sharply with projections that place Bitcoin at as low as $30,000 if Harris wins.
What to expect if Kamala Harris wins?
Kamala Harris has not provided substantial details in her public declarations regarding cryptocurrency regulation. She may leverage pro-crypto rhetoric to set herself apart from Biden and establish herself as an independent leader. However, her deep ties to anti-crypto figures could significantly hinder her claims of pro-crypto intentions. Consequently, her promises appear shaky due to their ambiguous nature, and her hints at easing crypto regulations are unconvincing.
Overall, the US government’s current perspective on cryptocurrencies is gradually softening, but these adjustments are minor and unlikely to alter the broader landscape significantly. Under a Harris administration, any changes would likely remain sluggish and hesitant, although changes will occur as cryptocurrencies endure.
What to expect if Donald Trump wins?
Donald Trump’s references to cryptocurrency in his speeches are an apparent effort to differentiate his position from the current administration. This tactic seems to be tailored for attracting specific voter demographics to his side. Nonetheless, his support for the crypto sector appears to be driven by more than just political maneuvering; having recognized the economic potential of cryptocurrencies, Trump’s earlier skepticism has been replaced by a more welcoming approach.
His reputation for impulsiveness and rapid decision-making contrasts with that of conventional candidates on this issue. If elected, it’s plausible that he would move decisively towards favorable crypto regulations.
Conclusion
The contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential race highlights their differing approaches to cryptocurrency regulation. Harris, despite her promises to alleviate regulatory burdens, is often perceived as a continuation of the Biden administration’s stringent policies, which have cultivated general suspicion among crypto enthusiasts.
Conversely, Trump’s transforming views on cryptocurrency, complemented by public endorsements and proactive efforts to uplift the industry, have garnered considerable support from crypto advocates. Reports from financial analysts at Goldman Sachs and Jefferies support Bernstein’s predictions, which suggest Bitcoin could rise to $90,000-$100,000 should Trump be elected.
Additionally, some experts project Bitcoin’s value will increase irrespective of the election outcome. For instance, FBS analytics foresee Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by 2025 if trends in crypto adoption persist. They presented a chart illustrating BTCUSD’s cup-and-handle pattern, a classic bullish formation.
If the upper trend line above the $67,000 resistance level is breached, the $90,000 target, aligned with the 138.2 Fibonacci line, will be the next goal. Should $90,000 resistance be surpassed, Bitcoin could attain $102,000.
These forecasts provide the crypto community with reasonable optimism that widespread crypto adoption is merely a matter of time.
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