As the cryptocurrency market anticipates a possible bullish surge in 2025, analyst IonicXBT has released a thorough guide detailing how to assess the Bitcoin market peak in this current cycle. This guide is anchored in the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), a crucial yet often overlooked metric for Bitcoin analysis.
Comprehensive SOPR Metric Overview by IonicXBT
On X (previously Twitter), IonicXBT informed his 125,000 followers that the SOPR metric has reliably predicted market peaks in past crypto cycles, referencing its effectiveness in 2018 and 2021. The SOPR indicates whether the average Bitcoin investor is currently realizing profits or incurring losses on their holdings.
When the SOPR value exceeds 1, it signifies that average holders in the market are selling their coins for a profit. Conversely, a value below 1 suggests that most participants are selling at a loss. Based on the chart he shared, he appears to believe that Bitcoin’s moving average SOPR has dipped below 1.0, which indicates a trend where most spent outputs are being sold at a loss.
He further pointed out that the current SOPR decline suggests that the bottom of the correction is approaching, indicating that we are not yet at a market peak.
Interestingly, he urged his followers to stay composed, stressing the importance of SOPR spikes, which typically indicate market tops as long-term investors take profits. He reassured them of his dedication to delivering accurate indicators for pinpointing market peaks using data-driven strategies rather than hype or conjecture.
“But don’t worry, I’ll be the first to notify you when we hit the top. No hype, no nonsense, Just genuine strategies supported by data,” the analyst stated.
Alternative Approaches to Identifying the Bitcoin Market Peak Cycle
While IonicXBT has emphasized the importance of the SOPR metric for forecasting market tops, other analysts like Kaleo have provided alternative indicators. Kaleo has shared an inverse Bitcoin chart, suggesting that BTC may approach the trendline of his logarithmic growth curve by next year, with a potential target price soaring to approximately $220,000.
In a recent update, Kaleo expressed an increasing sense of optimism, declaring, “Alright, I’m giving in. Be more bullish.” By analyzing the inverse chart, he notes that Bitcoin often experiences significant price increases following its halving event, which occurs when BTC miner rewards are reduced by half.
Kaleo believes that Bitcoin will consolidate for a few more days prior to embarking on surges that could break through several resistance levels. Based on his chart, he seems to forecast that Bitcoin could achieve new all-time highs by early next month. As of now, Bitcoin is priced at $62,092, reflecting an increase of over 3% for the day.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
