Throughout much of the last year, there were widespread predictions that Ethereum’s (ETH) price could hit five figures. Yet, as Bitcoin (BTC) soared in 2024 while ETH lagged behind, market experts have reevaluated their projections.
With ETH struggling to keep up, the optimism for a $6,000 price target has cooled, indicating that it might be time to adjust expectations for this market cycle.
Investors Show Preference for Bitcoin Over Ethereum
In August, the Pi Cycle Top suggested that Ethereum’s price could exceed $6,000 before the conclusion of this bull market. However, various factors have emerged since then, making the original prediction seem less probable.
The Pi Cycle Top has historically served as a reliable predictor of the pinnacle price a cryptocurrency can achieve within a certain timeframe. It leverages the 111-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) combined with the 350-day SMA to estimate this peak.
At present, Ethereum’s price stands at $2,603, while the 350-day SMA (represented by the purple line), which indicates potential peak value, is currently at $5,699. This implies that ETH may struggle to break through this price zone shortly, complicating the prospects for further significant price hikes.
Read more: How to Invest in Ethereum ETFs
The decline in Ethereum’s potential for price appreciation could be attributed to a decrease in investor interest in the asset, particularly in comparison to Bitcoin.
For example, Bitcoin ETFs experienced inflows of $1 billion in just three days this week, indicating strong institutional interest. Conversely, Ethereum ETFs attracted only $5 million on October 17, underscoring that institutional interest is leaning towards Bitcoin rather than Ethereum.
Additionally, this sentiment appears to have spread to retail investors in the United States. According to CryptoQuant, the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks buying and selling activity, has recently dropped into negative territory. This change indicates that more investors are opting to sell ETH rather than buy, reflecting a bearish sentiment toward the altcoin.
ETH Price Prediction: Retracement Still Possible
Ethereum is currently exhibiting a price pattern similar to that observed in May and November 2021. Analyzing the weekly chart, whenever this pattern occurs, ETH’s price has historically decreased by double digits. For instance, the altcoin fell by 52% in May of that year.
Following a similar technical pattern, it experienced a 45% drop by November. At the moment, ETH is relying on the $2,455 support level to avert such a retracement again. However, the diminishing trading volume indicates that the cryptocurrency may struggle to maintain this support for an extended period.
Read more: How to Buy Ethereum (ETH) With a Credit Card: Complete Guide
Should this occur, ETH’s price could plunge to $2,186. However, if investor interest in Ethereum increases, this prediction might not materialize. Instead, ETH could rally to $3,814 in the medium to long term.
Disclaimer
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