- Ethereum appears to be mirroring its 2016 trend.
- Geopolitical uncertainties influence the overall crypto market.
As the fourth quarter (Q4) of the year commences, Ethereum [ETH] exhibits a blend of signals. Traditionally, a positive finish in September has often resulted in favorable market trends, but Ethereum is charting a potentially divergent path.
ETH managed to close on a high note in September, paralleling the trends from 2016, which may foreshadow a downturn in Q4. If historical patterns hold true, Q4 might witness a decline, followed by a rebound in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.
The intricacies of Ethereum’s price movements are fascinating, and its historical performance is crucial to observe as it might deviate from established trends.
Source: X
Whales cashing out and unstaking
The current trading behavior of Ethereum echoes its 2016 trends, hinting at a potential bearish shift in Q4. This expectation is bolstered by significant investors, known as “whales,” who are unstaking their ETH and realizing profits.
Recently, a whale unstaked 29,480 ETH, which was moved to Coinbase for profits exceeding $2 million.
Source: Onchain Lens
This type of activity generally signals that major players foresee a downturn, raising the likelihood of a negative Q4 for Ethereum. Such maneuvers exert pressure on ETH’s price, with investors keenly observing for any signs of decline.
ETH ETF outflows and market shifts
Ethereum has also faced notable outflows from its exchange-traded funds (ETFs), adding to a cautious market outlook. Since September 3, the market has recorded the largest net outflows in both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum ETFs.
ETH ETFs have seen outflows totaling $48.6 million, with significant withdrawals from key players like Grayscale and Fidelity. While some smaller ETFs recorded inflows, they were insufficient to counterbalance the wider trend.
Source: SpotOnChain
This trend suggests that institutional investors might be preparing for a possible drop in Ethereum’s price in Q4, aligning with prevailing market sentiments.
Geopolitical tensions affecting prices
Current conflicts in the Middle East have impacted the wider crypto market, including Ethereum. Both BTC and ETH have seen significant price drops, with ETH falling below the $2,500 mark.
In the past 24 hours, around 155,000 accounts were liquidated, translating to $533 million, with $451 million stemming from long positions.
These liquidations, particularly within ETH, further substantiate the theory that Ethereum may replicate its 2016 trend of a negative Q4.
Source: Coinglass
The convergence of whale actions, ETF outflows, and geopolitical factors indicates that Ethereum may encounter hurdles in Q4.
Read Ethereum’s [ETH] Price Prediction 2024–2025
Despite ETH’s recent resilience, historical trends and current market conditions suggest that a decline may precede a possible recovery in early 2025.
Investors are advised to proceed with caution and keep a close eye on these evolving dynamics, as any divergence from established patterns could present both risks and potential opportunities for ETH in the upcoming months.
