- ETH encountered resistance around $2700 following the recovery in October.
- The options market indicates lower likelihood of ETH reaching $3K before the US elections.
Ethereum [ETH] bounced back to $2.6K after overcoming initial losses in early October. The leading altcoin recorded a recovery of approximately 12%, rising from $2.3K to above $2.6K.
At the time of writing, ETH was priced at $2,614 but faced a significant barrier below $2700.
Ethereum Price Forecast
Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView
Since October 9th, ETH has seen an increase in capital inflows, as indicated by the rising Chaikin Money Flow. However, the momentum eased in the last couple of days, hinting at a slight decline in inflows.
This might hinder ETH’s advancement past the resistance and supply area (highlighted in red), which also serves as a bearish order block. The supply area coincided with a trendline resistance (dotted white line).
This suggests that the resistance could lead to a price retracement towards the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) at $2.5K (blue line).
Nevertheless, ETH could make another attempt to breach the obstacle if Bitcoin [BTC] continues its upward trajectory beyond $68K. In such a case, ETH might gain an additional 8% if it reaches $2.9K.
Options Data Indicates…
Source: Deribit
According to options data from Deribit, ETH is unlikely to experience a significant breakout in October. The market seems pessimistic about ETH surpassing $3K before the month’s end, with only a 6% chance.
On the flip side, the probability of reaching $3K per ETH is projected at 21% by November 8th, right after the US elections.
In other words, a substantial move above $3K for ETH may only occur post-US elections, as the new administration will influence DeFi regulation.
Meanwhile, this week’s 8% surge saw over 220K ETH added in Open Interest on the Binance exchange.
Although this suggests bullish intentions, considering the price increase and escalating spot demand (CVD), it provides no clear direction for ETH’s future price movement.
Read Ethereum [ETH] Price Prediction 2024-2025
Yet, the heightened leverage signals significant liquidation risk, especially if ETH’s price declines sharply.
Thus, support levels at $2300, the 50-day EMA, and the resistance could be crucial watch points in the short term.
Source: TradingView
Disclaimer: The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, or trading advice. It reflects the author’s opinion only.
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