Ethereum (ETH) October Outlook: Price and Institutional Factors

Ethereum has faced challenges maintaining stability around the $3,000 mark, with diminished institutional inflows and reduced investor confidence keeping the altcoin in check.

Nonetheless, October is anticipated to usher in a significant change in market sentiment and price movements, contingent on institutional involvement.

Ethereum May Not Experience an Increase Beyond $3,000

The bullish prospects for Ethereum are largely dependent on institutional activity, as the lack of inflows into spot ETH ETFs remains a major concern for the altcoin. However, changes are expected in the upcoming month.

In a discussion with BeInCrypto, Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21.co, elaborated on the causes behind the poor inflow figures.

“The recent decline in institutional interest for Ethereum can be attributed to the unfortunate timing of the ETH ETF introductions. These ETFs faced several negative conditions, notably launching in the summer—a time generally marked by lower activity in both crypto and traditional financial markets. Additionally, their introduction came just two weeks prior to the Japanese Yen Unwind Trade, a critical macroeconomic event that introduced significant challenges for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies,” Mena stated to BeInCrypto.

Furthermore, Ethereum’s ascent to $3,000 will hinge on several external variables. Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, discussed these influential factors with BeInCrypto.

“What could drive ETH back to $3,000? First, advancements in technical innovation—projects focused on AI, payments, and restaking could launch on Ethereum, attracting new users. Secondly, enhanced macro liquidity—following the Fed’s potential rate cuts, more dovish signals have emerged. If the Fed lowers rates to align with Ethereum’s staking yield (approximately 3.5%), ETH might regain its status as an income-generating asset, drawing in fresh capital,” Kan remarked to BeInCrypto.

Read more: How to Invest in Ethereum ETFs?

Conversely, bearish signals from investors are beginning to surface. Ethereum’s 30-day MVRV Ratio is currently at 6.5%, placing it in a precarious position. The MVRV Ratio serves as a key gauge for profits and losses, and when it falls within the 3% to 12% range, investors typically look to take profits by selling off their holdings.

This trend raises the likelihood of a correction due to selling pressure, which could hinder Ethereum’s price momentum.

The elevated MVRV Ratio suggests that Ethereum investors may opt to cash out their earnings, particularly given the fragile market sentiment. This selling activity could incite a price correction, preventing Ethereum from solidly exceeding the $3,000 threshold unless bullish momentum gathers pace.

ETH Price Forecast: Observe and Wait

Currently priced at $2,642, Ethereum is poised to break out of a descending channel pattern that has developed over the past two months. This pattern suggests that a breakout could lead to a 23% increase, targeting a price level of $3,258, which many investors are eagerly anticipating.

However, this potential upswing largely depends on enhanced institutional inflows. Even if Ethereum falls short of achieving a 23% rise, sustained bullish sentiment from investors and favorable macroeconomic conditions could help ETH surpass its $2,930 resistance and push it above the $3,000 mark.

Read more: Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Conversely, if the breakout fails, Ethereum may remain caught within the channel. This scenario could result in a test of the lower trendline near the $2,170 support level, invalidating the bullish outlook and delaying any significant upward movement for the altcoin.