Cycle Top Predictions & Next Bear Market Bottom Insights

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As Bitcoin (BTC) undergoes a slight correction, trading below the crucial $66,000 support level after multiple attempts to surpass the $70,000 threshold, analysts are noting essential technical indicators that could suggest potential price recoveries ahead.

Significantly, BTC’s weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has shifted to a bullish stance for the first time since October 2023. This MACD change mirrors past market trends, especially the substantial rally seen during the 2021 bull market.

Current Bitcoin Trends Reflect 2021 Rally, New ATH Feasible

Crypto analyst CryptoBullet highlighted that the previous occasion when the MACD indicated a bullish trend, BTC was priced between $20,000 and $25,000 in 2023, which led to a dramatic price surge to a new all-time high of $73,700 in March of this year.

This backdrop opens the possibility for significant advances for the premier cryptocurrency as the market displays signs of recovering from recent consolidation phases over the last few months.

In a recent analysis posted on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), CryptoBullet also remarked on the similarities between the existing market conditions and the dynamics of the 2021 bull cycle.

The analyst pointed out the vertical rally observed in 2021, followed by a mid-term correction, suggesting that while the present correction may not be as intense, it has extended over a longer timeframe.

CryptoBullet mentioned that BTC is emerging from the prolonged consolidation phase as the MACD turns bullish again, indicating the possibility of achieving a new all-time high in the final months of the year, alongside a lower high in the MACD indicator.

Cycle Peak Of $95,000-$100,000 By Early 2025

CryptoBullet’s optimistic perspective extends over the next two years, projecting a cycle peak for Bitcoin between $95,000 and $100,000, with the following bear market bottom estimated to be between $23,000 and $25,000.

This forecast relies on Fibonacci wave analysis, where he anticipates that the convergence of the 1.618 Fibonacci level and the peak of the current channel will align with his target for Wave 5.

CryptoBullet foresees that once the target range of $95,000 to $100,000 is reached—expected between December 2024 and March 2025—Bitcoin could encounter resistance, leading to the initiation of the first wave (A) of the subsequent bear market.

The analyst anticipates a temporary low in the summer of 2025, followed by fluctuations often characterized as a “Dead Cat Bounce” in the market, expected between September and December 2025.

CryptoBullet cautions that the most arduous phase, Wave C, could prolong throughout 2026, with a potential target of $23,000 to $25,000.

CryptoBullet acknowledges the inherent unpredictability in these predictions, stating, “These are merely my expectations. I aim to be conservative and not propose outlandish targets of $250,000 to $500,000 or $1 million.”

In his analysis, CryptoBullet also notes that these scenarios could become invalidated if there is a significant shift in the macroeconomic environment, potentially allowing Bitcoin to break out of its multi-year channel upwards. In such an event, discussions around $170,000 to $200,000 targets for Bitcoin could become relevant.