Crypto Bettor ‘Fredi’ Manipulates Trump Odds on Polymarket

In a narrative within the decentralized prediction market landscape, a researcher has accused a crypto bettor known by the alias ‘Fredi9999’ or just ‘Fredi,’ of significantly skewing the odds for former President Donald Trump on the crypto platform Polymarket. Over the last two weeks, Trump’s probability of victory has jumped from being nearly equal to Vice President Kamala Harris to a considerable 60.7%, while Harris’s odds have fallen to 39.3%.

The accusations were brought forward by Domer (@Domahhhh), a pseudonymous political crypto bettor, who elaborated on his findings in a detailed thread on X. Domer mentioned: “A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 — the person or entity — who is singlehandedly driving up the price of Trump on prediction markets globally. Spoiler alert: I managed to reach out to him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive guy! More on that later.”

Is the Crypto Platform Polymarket Being Manipulated?

Domer expounded on the tactics of the alleged manipulation, emphasizing that Fredi has been making significant bets exclusively on Trump, reportedly surpassing $25 million. This influx of capital has created a premium of about 5% to 8% on Trump’s odds, rendering bets on Trump more costly while simultaneously lowering the cost of betting on Harris by a comparable amount. Domer contends that this strategy disrupts the equilibrium of supply and demand on Polymarket, resulting in distorted pricing that does not accurately mirror broader market sentiment.

Furthermore, Domer’s investigation indicated that Fredi9999 is not limited to a single account. Rather, multiple accounts—PrincessCaro, Michie, and Theo—are believed to be managed by the same entity, collectively holding positions worth approximately $28 million. The synchronization of large deposits from the crypto exchange Kraken, typically in amounts of $500,000 or $1 million, into these accounts before funneling funds exclusively to Trump-related markets suggests a coordinated effort to sway market results.

Backing this claim, @fozzydiablo, another researcher, detected patterns across the four accounts that indicate a single user’s control. Domer referred to @fozzydiablo’s findings, linking to a comprehensive analysis.

Data suggests a single entity has been purchasing all Trump-related bets on @Polymarket totaling $26 million.

– Fredi9999
– PrincessCaro
– Michie
– Theo4

Examining their betting activity allows us to analyze timing and patterns.
What’s most interesting is when… pic.twitter.com/2eSv2AKRhW

— Fozzy (@fozzydiablo) October 16, 2024

Domer also speculated about the potential identity and motivations behind Fredi’s actions. Notable observations regarding the linguistic styles in comments made by Fredi and associated accounts—such as the use of both British and American English spellings and unusual spacing around punctuation—suggest a possible French origin. Domer theorized: “AI indicates the writing/spelling/odd misspellings might point to a French individual who has learned British English and spent time in America.”

Nevertheless, Domer acknowledged the likelihood of ulterior motives, considering scenarios where Fredi could be part of a larger scheme or even an elaborate role-playing act aimed at obscuring true intentions. The researcher stressed the unprecedented nature of a $25 million all-in bet on a single candidate, underlining the need for further investigation to reveal underlying motivations.

Domer commented: “Maybe it’s all a LARP, and someone is just enjoying pretending with all of this, trying to seem unsophisticated on purpose. Perhaps it’s linked to Elon [Musk] or another substantial GOP megadonor. I have no clear answers, and figuring out what’s happening is somewhat of a game. Maybe it’s actually [famous crypto trader] GCR despite GCR asserting it isn’t him. GCR speculated that it might be someone striving to send Bitcoin soaring, which is a valid consideration.”

This information comes amidst criticism from Hasu, a strategic advisor to the crypto project Lido Finance and strategy lead at Flashbots. He noted via X: “Polymarket is indeed good, but I feel it’s time to call them out for their misleading practice of showcasing ‘volume’ prominently, while aggressively concealing open interest across their website. […] This market isn’t deep by traditional standards yet, particularly considering the scale of the event. Its deceptive reporting and the substantial shadow cast by the media only enhance this impression. And this is assuming there is no fake volume on Polymarket.”

Historically, significant individual bets have occasionally influenced prediction markets. Domer cited earlier cases from the 2008 and 2012 US presidential elections, where large single bettors attempted to influence market odds for John McCain and Mitt Romney, respectively. Both cases ultimately failed to alter the election outcomes, fostering skepticism about the effectiveness and impact of such extensive bets.

Domer concluded his analysis by questioning the broader ramifications of Fredi’s actions: “Why do I care about this? Good question! It’s crucial to know who you’re betting against. Is this a highly astute trading firm I should be wary of? Or is this an individual betting on his desires, and I should be pleased? Is this merely a feeble attempt to convey the notion that Trump is winning significantly with no other motives? It’s challenging to discern what’s actually happening.”

At press time, BTC was trading at $67,646.