In a recent analysis posted on X, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) offered a comprehensive macro outlook on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), indicating that the next major market peak—and possibly the best moment to “sell it all”—could occur in the latter half of 2025.
Astronomer remarks, “Another month and a half has gone by, and the full macro breakout narrative is effectively drawing attention to the crypto charts now.” Looking back at his previous forecasts, he highlights, “The last time we shared our projection for a Q4 upside breakout, BTC was priced at $58k and ETH at $2.3k.” Since that point, Bitcoin has achieved a 20% increase and Ethereum a 13% rise, which took place “despite the skepticism of low timeframe technical analysis users, prior to the full breakout actually happening.”
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Astronomer stresses that traditional order flow and price action analysis become less applicable on higher time frames, which is why he tries to find an “edge elsewhere” using various data analyses. “We had our thesis set up, backed by numerous data analyses that confirmed not only that the low is in, but also that a high timeframe breakout is likely,” he elaborates.
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Examining Bitcoin’s macro standpoint, Astronomer combines time, sentiment, and volume to pinpoint weekly cycle lows. “The Middle East capitulation event [Israel-Iran tensions] distinctly marked that, occurring precisely 28 weeks after the previous weekly cycle low,” he comments. As for the upcoming weekly low, which is expected in late December, he believes there is “still potential for upside” and foresees that “prices will begin to accelerate from here.”
In terms of market psychology, he warns that “The market always finds an escape route on the low timeframes as most traders (‘investors’) fall into the trap of short-term memory fallacy and overlook the high timeframe perspective.” Remaining confident in his forecast, Astronomer asserts that “the ultimate peak is still anticipated in the second half of 2025, which I believe will be the real moment to ‘sell it all.’”
Astronomer also points out a similar yet tighter cyclical pattern for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin. “ETH usually sees price drops closer to the four-year cycle peaks (2014, 2018, 2022) and experiences its surges later in the four-year cycle (2016, 2020), creating the impression of more aggressive movement,” he explained.
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He further discusses the current sentiment surrounding Ethereum and other layer-1 protocols: “By now, it’s evident that ‘useful’ coins are often labeled as ‘useless’—a typical reaction when prices stagnate. However, anyone who has even slightly interacted with ETH understands its capabilities.” Astronomer attributes the stagnation in growth to cyclical and sentiment-related factors, asserting, “There was significant hype around it in 2021 that has yet to be fully absorbed.”
While holding a bullish perspective, Astronomer recognizes the potential for unexpected events to disrupt the market. “Despite the data backing my views, there’s always a slight chance I could be wrong,” he acknowledged. He mentions the possibility of global crises like “World War 3 (WW3)” or “the fall of a nation,” suggesting such incidents “can significantly pull down the market,” possibly causing Bitcoin to retreat “below $50k.”
Nevertheless, he remains firm in his approach: “Cycles are inherently powerful, and we’ve demonstrated why such events shouldn’t deter you. I will certainly hold on in that scenario, hedging with well-timed large shorts and continue riding out the cycle, as I believe prices will bounce back.”
The analyst ultimately warns traders not to lose focus on the larger picture due to immediate market fluctuations: “You may find yourself questioning why… But so far, so good.” In response to a user’s comment, “Wow! Do you think BTC could hit $350k? That’s astonishing!”, Astronomer clarified: “I don’t envision that. It’s more of an optical illusion on the chart. I think we can realistically aim for $150-200k.”
At the time of writing, BTC was priced at $66,475.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
