Bitcoin (BTC) has encountered a challenging start to the traditionally optimistic month of October, influenced by increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Nevertheless, bulls are optimistic about a potential recovery later in the month.
Bitcoin’s “Uptober” Begins With Uncertainty
The foremost digital currency by reported market capitalization has had a rocky start to its most favorable month since 2013. The chart below illustrates how October has historically served as the most lucrative month for Bitcoin, yielding a median return of 21.2%.
Yesterday, BTC briefly slipped beneath the crucial $60,000 threshold before bouncing back to $61,179 at the time of writing. Throughout this fluctuating price activity, BTC experienced liquidations amounting to over $32 million, while ETH liquidations were slightly higher than $18 million.
Over the week, Bitcoin has dropped 6.9%, while prominent altcoins have seen even steeper declines. Ethereum (ETH) has decreased by 11.2%, Solana (SOL) has seen a 10.9% drop, and BNB has fallen by 9.9%.
Data from CoinGlass reveals that most of BTC’s price gains tend to occur in the latter portion of October. The chart below indicates that the initial days of October have historically been less favorable for BTC prices.
Importantly, Bitcoin has only recorded a positive performance on October 1 once since 2013, whereas October 2 has shown increases five times out of eleven. Conversely, later dates, such as October 28, have witnessed gains nine out of eleven times, followed closely by October 20 with eight positive outcomes in the same period.
Additionally, it is noteworthy that Bitcoin’s most unfavorable month, September, this year concluded with a 7.29% gain, marking its best performance since 2013.
Various Factors Impacting Bitcoin Price Movement
Bitcoin experienced its fourth halving in April 2024, followed by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate reductions in September—two occurrences that are generally viewed as bullish for BTC’s price outlook.
However, increasing geopolitical tensions have overshadowed these positive events, along with uncertainties surrounding the outcomes of the highly contested US presidential elections in November 2024.
Nonetheless, some cryptocurrency analysts maintain a positive outlook for a Bitcoin rebound later in the year. For example, an analyst from Standard Chartered believes the recent dip below $60,000 presents an excellent buying opportunity.
Likewise, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen anticipates “exceptionally high” probabilities of a crypto rally in Q4 2024. Factors contributing to this outlook include the decrease in Bitcoin dominance and the increase in Ethereum gas fees.
Conversely, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggests that interest rate cuts might trigger a short-term market downturn. Currently, BTC trades at $61,179, marking a 2.2% increase in the last 24 hours.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Charts from Coinglass.com and TradingView.com
