Bitcoin’s Q4 2024 Journey to $80,000: Key Factors Explored

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In a recent memo shared with clients, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan outlined several elements that could drive Bitcoin (BTC) to “melt-up” to $80,000 by the end of Q4 2024.

Elements That Could Drive Bitcoin to $80,000

Hougan identified three critical factors that could elevate BTC to new all-time highs (ATH) in 2024. First, he pointed out the forthcoming U.S. presidential elections in November, which could play a pivotal role in BTC’s price direction.

Hougan asserted that any outcome other than a Democratic sweep would bode well for the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

In the memo, Hougan discussed how many perceive the election as a clear choice – with Republican candidate Donald Trump seen as favorable for the crypto sector, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is viewed less favorably. However, he emphasized that the Democratic landscape is more complex. He stated:

The Democratic Party houses a range of opinions on crypto, from Senator Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) “Anti-Crypto Army” to Representative Ritchie Torres’ (D-N.Y.) strong support. The past four years have seen the Warren faction dominating policy and agency appointments, creating challenges for the industry.

Hougan expressed optimism about the Republican Party, noting that a win for them would “undoubtedly” benefit the crypto landscape. Additionally, he referenced a recent statement by Democrat Maxine Waters, who declared that “crypto is inevitable,” suggesting that Democrats may become increasingly receptive to digital assets.

Second, Hougan underscored the importance of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cuts. On September 18, the Fed reduced key interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), igniting a crypto rally. Furthermore, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) recently decided to inject economic stimulus, bolstering digital assets as well.

Hougan noted that the market anticipates another 50 bps rate cut from the Fed before the end of the year, combined with additional fiscal stimulus from China.The crypto market could experience a significant Q4 2024 rally if both conditions materialize.

Lastly, Hougan indicated that a period free from major disruptions would bolster BTC’s chances of rallying to $80,000. He cautioned that negative events, such as a major crypto exchange breach, new legal battles, or the release of previously locked coins, could hinder this momentum.

Essential Factor For Bitcoin’s Surge to $100,000

Hougan further stated that growing pro-crypto sentiment is essential for BTC to hit the ambitious $100,000 goal in the near future.

He reminisced about the notable “DeFi summer” of 2020 and envisions a similar widespread shift towards crypto, spurred by increasing adoption of stablecoins, advanced blockchains, and innovative passive yield strategies.

In related news, CleanSpark’s CEO, Zach Bradford, recently expressed the opinion that Bitcoin could reach as high as $200,000 within the next 18 months under favorable conditions.

That said, current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may negatively impact risk-sensitive assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies in the short term. At press time, BTC trades at $61,999, reflecting a 1.4% decline over the past 24 hours.