Bitcoin’s Price Predictions: Trump Victory vs. Harris Win

According to Standard Chartered, Bitcoin (BTC) is poised to reach new all-time highs by the conclusion of 2024.

Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets, shared insights in a recent CoinDesk report, suggesting that Bitcoin could soar to $125,000 if former President Donald Trump secures victory in the upcoming election, or reach $75,000 if Kamala Harris is elected.

Influence of Politics on Bitcoin

While it’s common for presidential elections to affect financial markets, Standard Chartered believes this year’s election will exert less influence on Bitcoin compared to the Biden-Trump contest.

Kendrick noted that the market is now expecting significant regulatory advancements no matter who is elected. In particular, the potential repeal of SAB 121, a stringent accounting rule imposed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) concerning banks’ digital asset holdings, is anticipated in 2025, which would greatly benefit Bitcoin.

The report also pointed out that although Trump is viewed as more crypto-friendly than Harris, a Harris administration would not impede Bitcoin’s upward trend, albeit it might slow the speed of regulatory advancements.

Apart from the election, changes in the U.S. Treasury market are seen as a vital factor that will contribute to Bitcoin’s growth, as the bank’s crypto head expects. He noted that the U.S. Treasury curve is currently re-steepening, with break-evens decreasing less dramatically than real yields.

This combination of declining risk-neutral yields and stable term premiums is generating what the market analyst refers to as “positive momentum” for Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory.

Impact of Miner Activity on Prices

This is not the first occasion Standard Chartered has expressed an optimistic outlook on Bitcoin. Earlier this year, the bank made similar observations regarding the U.S. elections being a significant driver for cryptocurrency price fluctuations.

At that time, they suggested that BTC could even rise to $150,000 by year-end if Trump returns to office. The institution believed that a mix of political elements, alongside regulatory and economic changes, could establish a robust foundation for Bitcoin’s growth in the forthcoming months.

Additionally, in its July forecast, Standard Chartered reiterated its stance, asserting that BTC has the potential to reach $120,000. The bank cited enhanced miner profitability as a critical component of its optimistic view, with Kendrick explaining that due to Bitcoin’s price increase at the time, miners were achieving greater yields per BTC mined, allowing them to sell fewer coins while sustaining cash flow.