Bitcoin Traders Eye $80K Price by November Amid Election Buzz

This article is also available in Spanish.

As the US presidential election draws near, the crypto community is abuzz with predictions about how the results might influence Bitcoin’s value.

With only 15 days left until the showdown between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, options traders are growing increasingly positive about Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high, irrespective of who takes office.

Traders Lean Towards Call Options Before US Election

A recent report from Bloomberg indicates that options traders are making significant bets on Bitcoin hitting a record high of $80,000 by the end of November.

Importantly, implied volatility for Bitcoin options, particularly those set to expire around the election, remains high. A greater number of traders are opting for call options, which allow the purchaser to buy BTC at the anticipated new highs.

David Lawant, the head of research at crypto prime broker FalconX, observed, “The prevailing market opinion is that Bitcoin is set to perform well, regardless of the election results.” His analysis suggests that options activity in the lead-up to the elections shows a clear preference for upside potential.

The political backdrop presents diverging perspectives concerning the emerging cryptocurrency sector. Trump has been a strong supporter of digital assets in recent months, leading many to view him as a pro-crypto candidate, with Bitcoin being termed a “Trump trade.”

Conversely, Harris has committed to advocating for a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, moving away from the heightened oversight typical of the Biden administration, which is marked by continual enforcement actions and lawsuits against key industry players.

The report further notes that besides political factors, traders are also weighing economic influences like potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and ongoing inflation worries, which foster a generally optimistic outlook.

Data Shows Strong Interest in $80,000 Bitcoin Calls

Information from Deribit, a crypto options exchange, indicates a declining put-to-call ratio, reflecting that more traders are purchasing call options compared to puts as we approach year-end.

Yev Feldman, co-founder of SwapGlobal, detailed the current trading behaviors observed among investors, stating: “Traders are acquiring calls near $68,000 and puts around $66,000, suggesting many are preparing for a breakout in either direction.”

Feldman also noted that there’s little cause to anticipate a significant decline post-election, making a bullish trend appear more likely for the leading cryptocurrency.

Open interest data demonstrates that call contracts expiring on November 29 are heavily concentrated around the $80,000 level, with the next most popular strike price at $70,000.

For contracts expiring on December 27, interest is clustered around $100,000 and $80,000, whereas the most sought-after strike price for calls expiring on November 8 is $75,000.

Interestingly, call options are attracting higher premiums compared to their put counterparts, according to the skew term structure, indicating the pricing dynamics between these options.

“This suggests that investors are increasingly using the options market as a tool to capture potential gains rather than as a safeguard against losses,” Lawant explained.

The researcher also highlighted that opinions on non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies are still mixed, with less agreement on how these assets might behave under different electoral scenarios.