Bitcoin Starts October Down at $61K: Is ‘Uptober’ a Myth?

This article is also available in Spanish.

Bitcoin began the month of October on a down note, contrary to the expectations of many investors leading into the month. After experiencing a significant price rally previously, Bitcoin encountered challenges as September concluded and the first 24 hours of October rolled in.

The initial 24 hours of October have been marked by substantial outflows from the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin specifically dropped below $61,000, according to Coinmarketcap, as geopolitical tensions began to escalate in the Middle East. This drop has sparked concerns regarding Bitcoin’s prospects for the rest of the month.

Current Bitcoin Price Action

The discussions leading into October were focused on the anticipation that Bitcoin would continue its bullish trend and overcome significant resistance points. Price records indicate that Bitcoin concluded September at a 7.11% increase compared to its beginning, even reaching a peak above $66,000 at one stage.

Nonetheless, at the time of this writing, Bitcoin has declined by nearly 7% from its September high. Additionally, Coinmarketcap data reveals that Bitcoin has dropped by 3.6% within the last 24 hours. This rapid downturn has shifted market sentiment, transforming the previous bullish outlook into one of anxiety and uncertainty. The Fear and Greed Index, which measures market emotions and risk tolerance, now stands at 39, indicating “Fear.” It appears that crypto investors are currently in a state of panic, with crypto analyst Kaleo highlighting this on the social media platform X.

After spending five minutes scrolling through the timeline, you’d think we’d never see a green candle again.

— K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) October 1, 2024

Bitcoin’s price movements are highly reactive to global events. Notably, the recent drop in Bitcoin’s price can be linked to the ongoing geopolitical strife in the Middle East. This recent trend underlines doubts about its effectiveness as a safe haven asset.

Furthermore, Spot Bitcoin ETFs, intended to support the Bitcoin spot price, experienced significant outflows on October 1, after eight consecutive days of inflows, most likely in response to the rising tensions in the Middle East. Data from Farside Investors indicates that institutional investors withdrew $246.2 million yesterday.

Is Uptober A Myth?

The optimistic sentiment appears to have quickly diminished among numerous crypto investors. However, many individuals are still clinging to a bullish perspective, especially as the month has ample time to unfold before its end.

History suggests that October has often been a favorable month for Bitcoin. Importantly, this positive performance has typically occurred in the latter half of the month. Given that we are only at the beginning, it’s more prudent to wait and see how the price movements develop over the week before forming any conclusions about Uptober.

In light of these tensions, Bitcoin’s potential function as a safe haven asset, akin to gold, may gain traction among market participants throughout this month and beyond.