The Bitcoin community has been eagerly anticipating the onset of a new bull market, particularly in light of the recent halving that took place in April. However, according to a recent analysis by a CryptoQuant analyst known as Onchained, that moment has yet to materialize, and there are reasons for this.
In the post shared on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, Onchained’s analysis focused on the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Mourad Ratio, a unique indicator that monitors UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) held for over six months.
This ratio essentially assists in assessing market sentiment and accumulation trends among long-term Bitcoin holders, providing crucial insights into when BTC may enter its next bullish phase.
Stability In The Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio
A significant aspect highlighted in the analysis is the stability of the Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio. Historically, when this ratio remains stable, it indicates that the market is not yet poised for a major upward movement.
Onchained noted that a bull market typically commences only when the ratio begins to deviate negatively from these stable levels. Currently, data indicates that the LTH Mourad Ratio remains steady, suggesting that Bitcoin’s bull run has not yet initiated.
This consistency in the ratio, as explained by the analyst, signifies that long-term holders are not yet significantly influencing price movements in the market, implying that investors may need to practice patience until more favorable conditions emerge.
For additional context, the Mourad Ratio is determined by dividing the Long-Term Holder Mourad Current Transaction Value (LTH MCTV) by the current Bitcoin price.
This calculation offers insight into the average value of UTXOs older than six months, giving a clearer understanding of recent accumulation trends among longer-term BTC holders.
Technicals Suggest That Bitcoin Bull Run Is Not Far Off
While Onchained’s analysis confirms that the Bitcoin bull run has yet to commence, other analysts have turned to historical price charts to predict when BTC’s bull run might begin from a technical viewpoint.
A well-known Bitcoin insight platform, Bitcoin Archive, has recently pointed out that BTC is on the cusp of executing a “bullish cross-over on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.”
According to Bitcoin Archive, in the last two occurrences of this pattern, BTC surged by 79% and 74% respectively; thus, if this trend continues, Bitcoin could rise past the $100,000 mark.
Bitcoin MACD about to make a bullish cross-over on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.
Last 2x Bitcoin went up 79% and 74%.
#Bitcoin will surge OVER $100K if this is repeated. pic.twitter.com/USTaCzHD44
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) September 25, 2024
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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