Big Bull Run or Bear Market? Bitcoin Faces Uncertain Future

TL;DR

• Bitcoin displays potential indications of a rally, with some experts forecasting a rise to a new all-time high.
• On the contrary, heightened exchange inflows hint at possible short-term selling pressure.

Is There Hope for the Bulls?

Bitcoin’s price saw fluctuations this past week, varying between $56,000 and over $60,500. At present, it is trading around $59,200, showing a daily increase of 1%.

Despite its recent fluctuations, many analysts believe a significant rally may be imminent. Twitter user Satoshi Flipper observed BTC’s recent rise above $59K, asserting that the calls for a surge to $64,000 “are growing louder.”

Elja (a Twitter user with close to 700,000 followers) foresees a “massive breakout,” while Mags anticipates “the largest bull run ever.” The latter predicts BTC’s price may exceed an incredible $325,000 per coin at some point next year.

Titan of Crypto also proposed an optimistic outlook. The analyst pointed out that historically, the leading cryptocurrency has tended to perform well when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50.

This metric reflects the speed and change of price movements, ranging from 0 to 100. A reading above 70 usually indicates overbought conditions, potentially signaling a price correction. Conversely, readings below 30 are deemed bullish, suggesting the asset could be undervalued. Currently, the RSI is around 55.

A crucial element that may trigger significant volatility for BTC this week is the FOMC meeting set for September 18. The US Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates for the first time in years, potentially easing borrowing costs and increasing investor interest in riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. According to Polymarket, the probability of a 0.5% cut is at 54%, while a 0.25% reduction stands at 46%.

The Bearish Indicators

Despite the generally positive outlook, some factors suggest that BTC might face a retracement in the near term.

For instance, the netflow of Bitcoin exchanges has been predominantly positive this past week, highlighted by a significant green candle on September 13. This movement indicates a transition from self-custody methods to centralized exchanges, which could lead to heightened selling pressure.