Are Altcoin Seasons Gone Forever? Analyst Weighs In on Future

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In a recent analysis posted on X, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) explores a pressing question in the crypto community: “Will we never experience a genuine altcoin season again?” With Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D) climbing and altcoins struggling to keep up, Astronomer presents a data-backed viewpoint that challenges the common belief that altcoin seasons are a thing of the past.

Astronomer begins by recognizing the challenges that altcoin investors are currently facing. “Alts remain at low valuations while BTC.D soars, and indeed, ETH (and altcoin) holders are finding it hard,” he points out.

He notes a rising skepticism among investors regarding any possibility of Bitcoin dominance decreasing again, which raises doubts about the emergence of another altcoin season. “You hear statements like ‘BTC ETF changed everything,’ ‘Boomers won’t invest in altcoins, hence they won’t rise,’ ‘BTC is at its ATH while alts have stagnated.’ These are sentiments that are easily embraced because they align perfectly with the current market trends,” Astronomer elaborates.

However, he warns against simply accepting these narratives. “They provide a false sense of security and a justification for avoiding alts, which can be particularly challenging during accumulation phases, especially when the BTC chart appears much stronger,” he adds.

Astronomer defines an altcoin season as: “A genuine altcoin season occurs when liquidity shifts from the dominant asset (BTC) to other assets (ETH and altcoins). This results in a drop in BTC.D and a rise in nearly all altcoins.”

The Case For An Impending Altcoin Season

Astronomer outlines several points to reinforce his belief that an altcoin season is approaching:

#1 Historical Precedence

“The first point: historically, we’ve experienced a significant altcoin season every single cycle (4-year rotation), consistently,” he asserts. This trend is not only visible in historical data but is also echoed in the experiences of those active during previous cycles. Astronomer cautions against the mindset of “this time is different,” which can lead to unfavorable outcomes for investors. “History tends to rhyme/repeat,” he reminds readers.

#2 Bitcoin Dominance Chart Aligns With 4-Year Cycle

“The BTC.D chart reflects the established 4-year cycle,” Astronomer notes. He had previously forecasted that Bitcoin dominance would peak around months 34 to 38 of this cycle. “As we are currently in month 33 of the 4-year cycle, changes are likely to occur in just a few months,” he highlights. Asserting that Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise without interruption contradicts established cyclical patterns, according to the analyst.

BTC dominance chart | Source: X @astronomer_zero

#3 The Grand Crypto Rotation

“The first Grand Altcoin rotation usually occurs once per cycle, around Q4 in year 3, and this is occurring on schedule so far,” Astronomer explains. He notes that in prior cycles, certain altcoins (a minority) have seen significant early performance driven by specific themes, while the majority see substantial gains later as liquidity flows from Bitcoin into those assets.

He cites the cycle from 2018 to 2022 as a clear example. “Throughout this cycle, during the first three years, LINK stood out as one of the strongest top 100 altcoins with a 100x increase, while ETH (along with other altcoins driven by BTC liquidity) merely achieved a 3x increase,” he elaborates. In the final year, the dynamics shifted: “ETH managed a 10x increase, while LINK recorded only a 3x gain during that time.”

#4 Overrated Impact Of Bitcoin ETF

Responding to the idea that a Bitcoin ETF’s approval has drastically changed the market dynamics, Astronomer expresses skepticism. “The narrative suggesting that BTC ETF will halt altcoin seasons is greatly exaggerated,” he contends. He underscores that since their inception, ETF flows have accumulated to around $40 billion, while the daily trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEX) for Bitcoin averages about $20 billion. “ETF flows are negligible, which is why I rarely mention them; I prefer to cut through the noise,” he states.

#5 Favorable Monetary Policy Looms

Astronomer also draws attention to macroeconomic trends that could favor altcoins. “Interest rates are decreasing, and the money supply in the US is experiencing significant growth (with China now mirroring this trend). We are essentially waiting for quantitative easing (QE), which typically follows an increase in M2 with some lag,” he explains. Historically, these monetary conditions have facilitated appreciation in altcoins. “Shifting monetary policies generally bode well for altcoins,” he observes.

#6 Bitcoin’s All-Time High Is An Arbitrary Indicator

He disputes the notion that Bitcoin reaching an all-time high (ATH) without a corresponding altcoin season indicates a definitive separation. “The fact that BTC has achieved an ATH while an altcoin season hasn’t unfolded yet is, in my view, insufficient to declare it canceled,” Astronomer argues. He stresses that time and cyclical trends are more critical than mere price milestones.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $61,129.