While Bitcoin may currently be navigating a downtrend, fundamental analysis indicates it remains in a robust position. A recent assessment by crypto analyst Kaleo suggests that Bitcoin is demonstrating more favorable dynamics than it did during the previous halving cycle. This optimistic perspective on Bitcoin arrives as the cryptocurrency strives to maintain its position above $54,000 and surpass $57,000.
Bitcoin Is In A Stronger Position
Kaleo’s Bitcoin analysis, shared on the social media platform X, contrasted the current BTC price performance since the recently concluded April 2024 halving with its performance following the previous halving in May 2020. It has been 141 days since the most recent halving, but the BTC price has yet to meet the expectations many had hoped for.
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The analyst noted that Bitcoin is presently trading 19% below its all-time high of $69,434 achieved during the last market cycle. While some might view this underperformance as indicative of a lingering bearish trend, Kaleo emphasized that Bitcoin is still faring quite well. This is because, at the same stage post the 2020 halving, Bitcoin had already declined 46% from the 2018 peak. This historical perspective underscores BTC’s stronger standing today despite its current challenges in breaking through significant price levels.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $56,616. The absence of sustained bullish momentum since August has led several crypto analysts to revise their previously hopeful forecasts. Consequently, there has been a surge of negative and bearish predictions reflecting the current market dynamics.
Nonetheless, Kaleo recalls a sentiment reminiscent of that which prevailed shortly after the 2020 halving. At that time, negative outlooks were prevalent, and many market participants voiced skepticism and dismal predictions regarding BTC’s future. However, Bitcoin bulls ultimately proved these predictions wrong, boosting the cryptocurrency’s market cap beyond the $1 trillion threshold for the first time. This also sparked a notable increase in the value of numerous altcoins and the rise of new sectors like NFTs.
What if I said Bitcoin is in a more favorable position now compared to the same time post halving in the last cycle?
It’s currently only down around ~19% from last cycle’s peak (141 days post halving).
In 2020, it was down approximately ~46% from the 2018 peak 141 days post halving.… pic.twitter.com/tZ0mFey15I
— K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) September 9, 2024
What Lies Ahead For BTC?
According to Kaleo’s analysis, despite the ongoing negativity, history may repeat itself, and Bitcoin might once again surpass market expectations. Additionally, the analyst proposes that the crypto ecosystem is better positioned now to facilitate a stronger price surge. For example, institutional investors are now able to invest in BTC efficiently via Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Moreover, regulatory conditions surrounding the crypto industry have seen substantial improvements over the last four years.
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Another analyst, Rekt Capital, examined prior halving cycles and suggested that if history is any guide, the next Bitcoin breakout could materialize in October, historically a strong month for Bitcoin. Historical data also indicates that the market peak could occur between 518 and 546 days following the April halving.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
