Where is Bitcoin’s Price Bottom? Three Expert Predictions

Bitcoin’s trading price on cryptocurrency exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since the massive sell-off in early August, falling beneath $50,000 for the first time since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, which had begun to see real demand.

After a bounce back from this previous downturn, BTC had climbed to $65,000 within weeks. However, bearish conditions have returned, resulting in a 7% decline over the past week.

This raises the question: what will it take for Bitcoin’s price to recover, and when might that happen? Here, we present three price predictions for BTC given the current market landscape.

1. $57,000 – BTC Miner’s Electricity Cost to Price Indicator

X.com crypto analyst Astronomer Zero provided this forecast on Thursday, just ahead of the US jobs report, which prompted a further $4,000 drop in Bitcoin’s price. If Zero’s prediction holds, this decline may be a temporary setback.

$BTC

The weekly hash ribbons, which are a highly reliable bottom signal, have just illuminated.

To conclude the data analysis regarding whether it’s an opportune moment to invest, I’ve included another set of data analysis with significant implications (16 data points spanning the entirety of… https://t.co/H6CIcn0hOJ pic.twitter.com/6zwhZONPrM

— Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) September 6, 2024

The analyst identified a pattern in miner capitulation and subsequent rebounds that could indicate a market bottom for Bitcoin is approaching.

“The mechanics of the hash ribbons are straightforward: each time a crossover occurs, a buy signal is generated,” Zero explained. “This results from an increase in the hash rate following a significant decline, which occurs as a direct result of miner capitulation.”

2. $53,480 – Fibonacci Retracement

This level signifies a 25% decline from BTC’s peak price of nearly $74,000 achieved in March. This is a recognized Fibonacci retracement percentage.

Should BTC adhere to this mathematically prevalent pattern, seen in both nature and active financial markets, we could be past the lows and entering a new rally.

3. $50,000 – Recessionary Macro Bear Market

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, recently laid out a worst-case scenario where the stock market bear market intensifies or a recession occurs, leading Bitcoin to drop to $50,000. Nevertheless, even he shifted from his short position on Sunday, suggesting a potential upswing.

Peter Brandt, a renowned commodity and forex trader, warns that the depth of the price drop is not the only concern; the duration of the market’s stagnation also plays a critical role. “There are two aspects to drawdowns – price and duration. Extended corrections can inflict more emotional strain than severe corrections,” he noted.

The last occasion Bitcoin closed lower than its current price was on February 25, 2024. $BTC #Bitcoin
The dimensions of drawdowns include both price and duration.
Prolonged corrections can lead to greater emotional distress than sharp corrections pic.twitter.com/IVwEx2PHic

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 6, 2024