Earlier today, Vivek shared his perspective on why he believes crypto-centric Polymarket, the largest prediction market globally, shows a bias toward Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. While his arguments have some merit, I contend that it might not be as skewed as he perceives.
Firstly, traders in prediction markets are primarily focused on profiting from their bets, rather than demonstrating allegiance to their chosen candidate. They are seeking favorable odds based on their assessment of who is likely to win. Factors such as positive GOP voter registration statistics in key swing states like Pennsylvania suggest that Trump has a solid chance of emerging victorious in this election. Notably, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller mentioned that the recent upswing in market performance is likely reflecting a Trump victory expectation.
Many, like Vivek, argue that Polymarket’s crypto roots imply its users support Trump due to his pro-Bitcoin and crypto stance. To examine this idea further, let’s look at Kalshi, a market prediction platform that is not crypto-based.
On Kalshi, a U.S. betting platform that settles contracts in USD rather than Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, Trump also maintains a considerable lead. Currently, Trump is ahead by 20% over Harris. The users on this platform seem to focus their bets on who they believe will win, often putting aside their own political preferences. Many comments reveal that while users hope for a Trump victory, they still opt for the opposite side of the bet, driven by concerns over potential election fraud from the Democrats that could allow Harris to ‘win’.
“Those of you betting on Trump have not considered the likelihood of delivery vans arriving at polling stations at 3am with tens of thousands of ballots, 99% of which will miraculously go to Kamala,” noted one user. “Kamala will win, whether legitimately or not, you’ve been warned.”
It will be intriguing to observe how these prediction markets evolve as we approach the election, which is now just two weeks away. I share Vivek’s sentiment that the margins will likely tighten as election day approaches. It appears to me that Trump has a strong advantage, but until the votes are counted, anything can happen. In the last election, many went to bed believing Trump had won, only for Democrats to uncover a trove of ballots for Biden at 3am to secure the win. If any electoral fraud or manipulation occurs this time, these prediction markets could see significant volatility.
A Trump victory would be a major win for Bitcoin from both a regulatory and economic standpoint, considering his proposed policies. Conversely, under Harris, the future of Bitcoin in the U.S. would be uncertain, as she has yet to detail any concrete policies she would implement as president and has historically opposed the industry during her tenure as vice president.
Bitcoin Magazine is partnering with Stand With Crypto to offer live election coverage on November 5th. If you’re a Bitcoiner frustrated with mainstream media and want to experience the election from a Bitcoin perspective, be sure to join the stream. More information about the livestream and viewing options can be found here.
This article represents a Take. The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
