Sina—a professor, consultant, and co-founder & COO of 21stCapital.com—forecasts that Bitcoin’s price could reach up to $285,000 by the end of 2025, according to a recent analysis shared on X. By using a quantile regression model, Sina delineates specific phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle.
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The model defines the Cold Zone (<33%) as the price range between $55,000 and $85,000. This area marks the lowest possible range expected by the end of 2025 and indicates an optimal time to “aggressively accumulate.”
The Warm Zone (33-66%), which covers the range from $85,000 to $136,000, indicates a phase where the market gains momentum and mainstream interest grows. Rapid price increases are anticipated as the “train leaves the station,” leading Sina to advocate for standard accumulation strategies like dollar-cost averaging (DCA) to gradually build holdings.
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The most crucial phase, known as the Hot Zone (>66%), spans from $136,000 to $285,000. This area is marked by increased volatility and significant price fluctuations as mass adoption peaks and leveraged positions rise in popularity.
While there’s considerable potential for upside, the likelihood of reversals increases sharply. Sina recommends that investors either retain their holdings to enjoy potential profits or contemplate gradual position exits based on risk evaluations, notably as historical peaks take place in the 90th to 99th quantile range, with the 90th quantile beginning at $211,000.
Sina is particularly fascinated by how these 33% quantile ranges align perfectly with Bitcoin’s historical phase transitions. He observes that Bitcoin usually spends precisely one-third of its time in each zone before moving to the next, almost predictably. This pattern indicates that most of the bear market occurs below the 33% quantile, while bullish sentiment typically begins above the 66% quantile.
Renowned cryptocurrency analyst PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) acknowledged Sina’s model as a “perfect explanation—super clear.” Sina reciprocated the praise, acknowledging that PlanC’s foundational work had influenced his own model.
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PlanC also recently updated his “Power Law Probability Model,” predicting Bitcoin prices between $189,733 and $245,264 for the 97% to 99.9% quantile and $145,182 to $189,733 for the 90% to 97% quantile. He stresses that, despite appearances, the underlying data demonstrates a power-law relationship, regardless of the plotting method—linear, log-linear, or log-log scales.
“The data adheres to a log-log relationship with quantile regressions, while the rainbow chart applies logarithmic regression with a log-linear relationship. […] I’m not ‘drawing’ these lines. These are quantile regressions of the log of price versus time, based on all available data,” he clarifies.
To frame the model’s forecasting abilities, PlanC elaborates on the implications of different quantiles. The 99.9% quantile signifies that the price has surpassed this line only 0.1% of the time—equivalent to just one day every 1,000 days, a very rare occurrence. The 99% quantile indicates the price has crossed this line 1% of the time, or about one day per 100 days, also rare. In contrast, the 0.1% quantile shows the price has dipped below this line only 0.1% of the time.
At the time of writing, BTC was priced at $67,121.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
