$1.3B Bitcoin Options Expiry: Market Sentiment Shift on Sept 13?

Approximately 23,000 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on Friday, September 13, carrying a notional value of about $1.34 billion.

This week’s options expiry is roughly double that of last week’s event, which may lead to a more significant impact on the subdued crypto spot markets.

Bitcoin Options Expiry

The current set of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.86, indicating a slightly higher number of long (call) contracts ready to expire compared to shorts (puts), though they are fairly balanced.

Open interest, or the value of open contracts still active, remains high at strike prices of $70,000 and $75,000, with $627 million and $638 million in open interest, respectively, according to Deribit.

Moreover, there is approximately $751 million in open interest at the $90,000 strike price, and a substantial $930 million at the $100,000 strike price.

The crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live noted that the week was “coming to a smooth end, as the US presidential debate and various macro data such as CPI “did not introduce significant volatility.”

It also mentioned that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week are gradually aligning. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut next week stands at 87%, while the chance of a 50 basis point cut is just 13%.

“At the same time, options data reflects a notable decrease in IVs [implied volatility] across all major terms, with market volatility expectations lacking and the market theme for September still fluctuating.”

Sept. 13 Options Data
23,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.87, a Maxpain point of $58,000 and a notional value of $1.34 billion.
127,000 ETH options are due to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.73, a Maxpain point of $2,400 and a notional value of… pic.twitter.com/tgmBzxZqan

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) September 13, 2024

Alongside this week’s Bitcoin options, there are about 126,700 Ethereum options set to expire with a notional value of $299 million. These contracts exhibit a put/call ratio of 0.73, which closely resembles last week’s expiry.

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index continues to indicate “fear” (32), reflecting ongoing market sentiment challenges.

Crypto Market Outlook

The total market capitalization has remained stable over the last 24 hours at $2.13 trillion.

Bitcoin has fluctuated between an intraday low of $57,300 and near $58,400, struggling to surpass this resistance level. Nevertheless, BTC has recovered from its September 7 low below $54,000 and stays tightly confined within a specific range.

Ethereum is also maintaining a narrow trading range between $2,320 and $2,360, a trend observed throughout most of the week. Altcoins are largely in the red, with only XRP and Toncoin (TON) experiencing notable gains of approximately 3%.